The first silverware of the English domestic football season will be decided on Sunday March 1st as Aston Villa face Manchester City at Wembley Stadium. At first glance this may seem like a bit of a mismatch and the bookmakers tend to agree but form can often be disregarded in big finals such as these.
Villa have been impressive on the road to Wembley but while Dean Smith’s side are caught up in a relegation battle, Manchester City are aiming for a second placed finish behind runaway league leaders Liverpool. There’s a gulf between the teams in the EPL table and that gap is reflected in the betting for Sunday’s 4.30pm kick off.
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Event Date: March 1, 2020
It’s rare to see such a one-sided result market for a game involving two Premier League sides but as we go into this clash, Manchester City are the red hot favourites at odds of just 1/6 with BetFred and Betway. The draw is quoted at 37/5 with VBet while a win for Aston Villa is out at an industry best of 20/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral.
Those are the numbers for the result in 90 minutes but can we offer Villa fans any more hope in the To Lift the Trophy market? The simple answer is ‘no’ as the numbers on Manchester City shorten even further to a best of 1/9 with William Hill while Aston Villa are available at 9/1 with Betway and 888Sport.
It’s hard to agree with those numbers but while Manchester City are the deserved favourites, odds of 1/6 are way too short for our interest. There have been major upsets in finals before and City were, themselves, on the wrong end of a real shock when Wigan beat them in the 2013 FA Cup Final. That isn’t to suggest it will happen again but it does underline the point that odds of 1/6 are just not worth bothering with.
Individual Goal Scorers
Considering those match odds, it’s no surprise at all to see Manchester City players dominating the first goalscorer market. Sergio Aguero gets us underway and you can pick up the Argentine striker at 12/5 with Unibet and 888Sport. Aguero’s teammate Gabriel Jesus is next at a best of 7/2 while Raheem Sterling is edging back to fitness and he can be claimed at a top price of 4/1 – both with Unibet and 888Sport.
Manchester City players continue to head this market and there will be a lot of interest in Kevin De Bruyne. The Belgian midfielder scored the winner and turned in a Man of the Match performance in City’s win over Real Madrid on Wednesday and he is listed at best odds of 7/1 with VBet.
As for Aston Villa players, we have to go all the way down to Mbwana Samatta who is on offer at a top price of 16/1 with Betway and VBet to open the scoring. The Tanzanian international scored for Villa on his debut after joining from Genk in January and he looks to be their most likely source of goals on Sunday.
There are lots of options there but our preference is to go for De Bruyne. The Belgian has a return of nine goals from 34 matches so far this season and while that’s relatively modest, he’s a man for the big occasion and can thrive on the Wembley stage. De Bruyne is quoted at best odds of 9/5 with SportingBet and GentingBet for a goal in normal time and we think that’s a good value pick.
Other Side Bets
When we get a game where one side is expected to win with ease, it can be difficult to find some value in the side markets. We’ll do our best and by starting with Both Teams to Score, this could be an excellent option because it’s out to a top price of 13/10 with SportingBet.
This bet doesn’t head above Even Money very often and while Manchester City are tight at the back, Aston Villa have a relatively healthy return of seven goals in their last five matches and we think that’s a price worth snapping up.
The same thoughts transition to the Total Goals Markets where you can back Over the 3.5 line at best odds of 11/10 with 888Sport and Unibet. That’s about average for this bet but it may need Manchester City to score the majority of those goals.
As for the Correct Score bet that we like to touch on, our preference would be for Aston Villa 1 Manchester City 3 and this can be picked up at a top price of 10/1 with Coral and BetFred.
We agree with the bookmakers and are expecting a comfortable afternoon for the favourites but that doesn’t mean that we can’t find some value. The side bets are the place to be on Sunday and remember that the following three tips are for 90 minutes only and will exclude any possible extra time / penalties.
- Kevin De Bruyne to score at any time at 9/5 with GentingBet
- Both Teams to Score at 13/10 with SportingBet
- Over 3.5 Goals at 11/10 with 888Sport